Friday, May 22, 2009

Re-evaluating Cecil and Ray

After consecutive poor outings by Cecil and Ray, I decided to go back and see if I have been overlooking something.

For Brett Cecil, the only consistent item is that his expected ERA has been higher than his actual ERA in every game. In the first two games the expected values were very good values of 3.78 and 2.10 compared to the actual game ERAs of 1.50 and 0.00. In the second two games these were 5.76 and 29.25 versus the actual values of 4.50 and 15.43. Looking at his WHIP, OBA, SLG and OPS from the first games, there is nothing that predicted the result in Boston. One could also speculate that his fifth inning performance could be related to his 4th inning diving fielding play and maybe he got hurt.

Bobby Ray is a different story. He has had one good start, the 3-hit, 8-inning victory over Chicago, May 16. In his three other starts, his WHIP+ is over 1.5, his BF/O is over 1.4, his OPS ranges between 0.800 and 1.000 and his expected ERA has been above 5.00.

I’ve liked what I’ve heard when these kids have been interviewed and I think they have a future in the majors. Cecil deserves another couple of starts, if he is healthy. With Casey Janssen ready to join the Jays, I think Bobby Ray needs more seasoning in the minors.


  1. If Janssen does get the call, I'm going to be most excited to watch him pitch again. Miss that kid.

  2. Where does the 'expected' ERA stat come from? How is it calculated?

  3. eyebleaf:

    I agree, it will be great to see Janssen pitch.


    Just imagine the Runs Created stat, conputed from the pitcher's perspective. This is Runs Allowed. Divide that by innings pitched and multiply by 9, and you get E(ERA)

    Thanks for the comments and questions!