Monday, May 18, 2009

162 Game Projections, after 40

This is not something I take seriously; projecting a full season based on a partial season is something that is fun, however.

The Jays have 6 players on pace for 20 home runs: Hill (45), Lind (28) and Overbay, Well, Rios and Scutaro, all on pace for 20.

Doubles: Lind is on pace for 57 doubles, Barajas 45, Scuraro, Wells and Rolen each on pace for 41 and Rios (36) and Overbay (32) lagging a bit at 36 and 32, respectively. I expect both Overbay and Rios to pick up the pace a bit. The first base platoon of Overbay and Millar is on pace for 52 doubles and 24 HR.

RBI: 31% of the Jays RBIs are being produced by Lind (35) and Hill (33), which project to 142 and 134, respectively. No other Jay is on pace for 100, the closest being Barajas, on pace for 89.

By the way, the Jays high-water mark last year was 12 games above 0.500, which they reached after game 144 on September 9, an 8-2 vistory against Chicago. This year, they also got there after an 8-2 win over Chicago, but they did it in 104 fewer games. Their 0.650 winning pace projects to a 105-57 record. Cue up the Arrowsmith music! (Dream On)


  1. Hey, I'm a giant Jays fan who revels in stats, but I don't know them anywhere near as well as you.

    There are a bunch of stats that I don't even understand, like OPS and OPS+, etc.

    I look forward to reading your blog and learning.

    You've got a new follower, my friend.

  2. Welcome aboard.

    OPS is On Base Percentage (OBP) plus Slugging Percentage (SLG). The number itself doesn't have a lot of meaning on its own, and I don't use it a lot myself. Instead, I prefer to use Runs Created (RC) since it translates the information impounded in the OPS into the units of scoring, runs.

    OPS+ takes each player's OPS and expresses it relative to the league average and adjusts for ballpark effects. As of this morning, Aaron Hill's OPS+ is 147, meaning he his OPS is 47% higher than the league average, once adjusted for the ball park. The Rogers Skydome, as it should have been rename, have park factors very near the average of 100, only slightly favouring the pitchers.

    As I mentioned before, I prefer to translate batters performance into Runs Created (RC) and likewise, convert pitcher's performance into Runs Allowed (RA). This is not difficult. Wikipedia has a decent article on Runs Created. Essentially, runs created takes the product of OBP and SLG and then multiplies this by the number of plate appearances (PA). A player. Let's take Marco Scutaro's numbers as an example. His OBP is 0.415 and his SLG is 0.458. If he makes 5 plate appearances in a game, he should produce 5 x 0.415 x 0.458 = 0.95 runs per game. (This does assume that the rest of the team produces offensively at the same pace as Marco.)

    I do the same thing with the pitching staff. A pitcher like Roy Halladay, with and On Base Average (OBA - the pitchers' equivalent to the OBP) of 0.271, and an opponents' SLG of 0.367 would allow 2.98 runs facing 30 batters.

    Overall, this analysis gives me a better feel of how well the team is performing - in essence that numbers behind the wins and losses.

  3. Hey, that's great. Thanks. I find some of the wiki entries on some of the different stat categories get weighed down in the actual math theory, which is not my strong suit. Seeing how stats are created by showing the equation written out does aide my brain, which is predominantly left. Seeing explained above helps quite a bit.

    Thanks, I appreciate it.