Call me a wimp, wuss, whatever, but I have never been a fan of outside-of-the-rules hits, fights, violence in any sport. Sports are inherently dangerous, with players being injured, maimed and scarred for life with terrible frequency, even playing within the rules. In baseball, the ball regularly travels in excess of 100 mph and pitchers, batters, base runners, coaches and fans can all be struck and injured, or even killed. Bats have broken and gone flying and catchers or umpires have been hit on the follow-through of a swing. In football, players are frequently on the receiving end of tackles or blocks they didn't see coming. Checking is an integral part of hockey and some clean checks injure. But when we participate in sports, there is an implicit contract that we know that these risks exist, and we accept them, within and along with the rules of the game.
What I am not willing to accept is what will happen outside of the rules. When things happen outside the rules, that's when the the contract has been violated. Insofar as there are no injuries, then the penalties prescribed within the rules should be sufficient to deal with the situation. When there are injuries, or worse, death, then the rules are not sufficient; the perpetrator has violated the contract to the extent that the law and the courts must step in.
Although I cannot ever recall it happening, if a baseball player were to use his bat to hit someone, how is that any different than a common assault outside the ballpark? Fights happen in hockey games, just like they will happen in parks, on the street, etc. But often the combatants end up setting their differences or others step in to end the fight the way referees do in hockey, without the need to waste the time of our constabulary or courts. In hockey, they're sent to the penalty box, or dressing room, depending on the penalties meted out.
There was a baseball player Manny Castillo, but that is not who this post refers to. Manny was a high school rugby player who was involved in an altercation with an opposing player who, according to reports, picked him up and drove him head-first into the ground in what one witness called a "pile-driver" maneuver. (Yes, professional wrestlers do that move, but remember, they're acting and have been trained how to execute and respond to this move.) Manny died.
Today, the perpetrator was found guilty of manslaughter.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Outfield Defensive Positioning
It seems to me that Vernon Wells and Alex Rios are playing too shallow. I know Vernon likes to play shallow as he thinks he can get back on well-hit balls, but there seem to be a lot of balls getting over both his and Rios' heads. I'd rather see them play a few steps further back if it would prevent a few doubles, particularly with runners on. On balls hit in front of them, base runners would have to respect their speed and hold up and if the ball dropped in with the arms on these guys, we probably hold them to a single base anyway.
The defensive positioning is not just up to the fielders. I recall hearing Jerry and Alan talking about the coaches having a responsibility in this regard, particularly Gene Tenace, if I remember correctly.
The defensive positioning is not just up to the fielders. I recall hearing Jerry and Alan talking about the coaches having a responsibility in this regard, particularly Gene Tenace, if I remember correctly.
What can you say?
Loss #9 in a row has had been speechless for over 24 hours. I started to do a statistical analysis of these 9 games compared to the 41 that preceded them, but the stats were all just saying the obvious. They're not hitting, they're not hitting for power, they're not hitting with runners in scoring position, 3 through 5 in the batting order have been abysmal, with the aforementioned resulting in the Jays not scoring runs. the starting pitching was poor and the bullpen was worse. Even the defense wasn't up Blue Jays' standards.
http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090528&content_id=5013098&vkey=news_tor&fext=.jsp&c_id=tor
Here is from an article on the Jays official MLB site:
Consider a few elements that led to the Blue Jays' recent slide:
• Prior to Wednesday's 10-run outburst, Toronto scored three runs or fewer in nine straight games to match the worst such stretch in franchise history -- first time since 1986.
• During the nine-game losing streak, the Jays hit at a .185 (15-for-81) clip with runners in scoring position, including a .154 mark in the first eight losses.
• Between loss No. 1 and loss No. 9, the Blue Jays endured a 77-inning homerless drought. That was Toronto's worst power outage since the 1997 season.
• The Jays scored just 13 runs over the first eight losses before plating 10 against Baltimore on Wednesday. In all nine losses, Toronto averaged 2.6 runs per game.
• Toronto's bullpen allowed just two runs over 12 innings (1.50 ERA) in the first five losses. In the next four games, the 'pen yielded 21 runs in 10 innings (18.90 ERA).
• The Blue Jays' Nos. 3-5 hitters (Alex Rios, Wells and Adam Lind, respectively) combined to hit .229 (25-for-109) with just four RBIs in the nine losses.
• Toronto used seven different starters (four rookies) in the nine games. That group combined for a 5.08 ERA, and the rookies averaged less than five innings per start.
• The Jays hit .254 with 81 hits, 77 left on base and a .653 on-base-plus-slugging percentage in the nine losses. Entering the trip, Toronto was batting .289 with an .821 OPS.
Enough said.
http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090528&content_id=5013098&vkey=news_tor&fext=.jsp&c_id=tor
Here is from an article on the Jays official MLB site:
Consider a few elements that led to the Blue Jays' recent slide:
• Prior to Wednesday's 10-run outburst, Toronto scored three runs or fewer in nine straight games to match the worst such stretch in franchise history -- first time since 1986.
• During the nine-game losing streak, the Jays hit at a .185 (15-for-81) clip with runners in scoring position, including a .154 mark in the first eight losses.
• Between loss No. 1 and loss No. 9, the Blue Jays endured a 77-inning homerless drought. That was Toronto's worst power outage since the 1997 season.
• The Jays scored just 13 runs over the first eight losses before plating 10 against Baltimore on Wednesday. In all nine losses, Toronto averaged 2.6 runs per game.
• Toronto's bullpen allowed just two runs over 12 innings (1.50 ERA) in the first five losses. In the next four games, the 'pen yielded 21 runs in 10 innings (18.90 ERA).
• The Blue Jays' Nos. 3-5 hitters (Alex Rios, Wells and Adam Lind, respectively) combined to hit .229 (25-for-109) with just four RBIs in the nine losses.
• Toronto used seven different starters (four rookies) in the nine games. That group combined for a 5.08 ERA, and the rookies averaged less than five innings per start.
• The Jays hit .254 with 81 hits, 77 left on base and a .653 on-base-plus-slugging percentage in the nine losses. Entering the trip, Toronto was batting .289 with an .821 OPS.
Enough said.
Saturday, May 23, 2009
Wells - Streakiness
In the first 14 games of the season, there were 34 base runners when VW came to the plate, and he batting in 3 of them, and paltry 8.8% of them.
In the next 16 games, there were 58 base runners ahead of him, and he batted in 13 of them, a much better 22.4% of conversion rate.
In the most recent 15 games, there have been 35 runners on base and he's batted in none of them. I'll leave the percentage to the reader to calculate.
One hopes that Cito's patience pays off, because it is very difficult to watch the number 4 hitter convert only 3 base runners for two-thirds of the season.
In the next 16 games, there were 58 base runners ahead of him, and he batted in 13 of them, a much better 22.4% of conversion rate.
In the most recent 15 games, there have been 35 runners on base and he's batted in none of them. I'll leave the percentage to the reader to calculate.
One hopes that Cito's patience pays off, because it is very difficult to watch the number 4 hitter convert only 3 base runners for two-thirds of the season.
Friday, May 22, 2009
Re-evaluating Cecil and Ray
After consecutive poor outings by Cecil and Ray, I decided to go back and see if I have been overlooking something.
For Brett Cecil, the only consistent item is that his expected ERA has been higher than his actual ERA in every game. In the first two games the expected values were very good values of 3.78 and 2.10 compared to the actual game ERAs of 1.50 and 0.00. In the second two games these were 5.76 and 29.25 versus the actual values of 4.50 and 15.43. Looking at his WHIP, OBA, SLG and OPS from the first games, there is nothing that predicted the result in Boston. One could also speculate that his fifth inning performance could be related to his 4th inning diving fielding play and maybe he got hurt.
Bobby Ray is a different story. He has had one good start, the 3-hit, 8-inning victory over Chicago, May 16. In his three other starts, his WHIP+ is over 1.5, his BF/O is over 1.4, his OPS ranges between 0.800 and 1.000 and his expected ERA has been above 5.00.
I’ve liked what I’ve heard when these kids have been interviewed and I think they have a future in the majors. Cecil deserves another couple of starts, if he is healthy. With Casey Janssen ready to join the Jays, I think Bobby Ray needs more seasoning in the minors.
For Brett Cecil, the only consistent item is that his expected ERA has been higher than his actual ERA in every game. In the first two games the expected values were very good values of 3.78 and 2.10 compared to the actual game ERAs of 1.50 and 0.00. In the second two games these were 5.76 and 29.25 versus the actual values of 4.50 and 15.43. Looking at his WHIP, OBA, SLG and OPS from the first games, there is nothing that predicted the result in Boston. One could also speculate that his fifth inning performance could be related to his 4th inning diving fielding play and maybe he got hurt.
Bobby Ray is a different story. He has had one good start, the 3-hit, 8-inning victory over Chicago, May 16. In his three other starts, his WHIP+ is over 1.5, his BF/O is over 1.4, his OPS ranges between 0.800 and 1.000 and his expected ERA has been above 5.00.
I’ve liked what I’ve heard when these kids have been interviewed and I think they have a future in the majors. Cecil deserves another couple of starts, if he is healthy. With Casey Janssen ready to join the Jays, I think Bobby Ray needs more seasoning in the minors.
Converting Base Runners
In response to a post by pablo on Mike Wilner’s blog, I looked at which of OBP, SLG or RC did the best job of predicting the winner of the Jays’ first 44 games. I’m not an enormous fan of the power game as too often it is feast or famine; I prefer teams and players that hit for average. I suppose that will be another analysis sometime in the future.
What surprised me was that the team with the higher OBP won 37 of the Jays first 44 games, whereas the higher SLG predicted 41 of the 44 game winners. Runs Created had a record of 36-8, differing from OBP on the outcome of three games. I was interesting to note that on the misclassified Jays losses the average Team LOB was 9.8 (9.2 for RC) and the total of the individual LOB averaged 20.7 (19.5 for RC). Conversely, in the games predicted as losses that the Jays actually won the averages were 4 for TLOB and 8 for the individual LOB. For the season, the Jays are averaging 7.7 and 16.4 on these measures, respectively.
When a player comes to the plate with runners on base, there are three principal things that can happen: he can drive them in, leave them on base, or erase them with a ground ball double play. (There can also be a run driven in with no RBI and there can also be double plays resulting from a runner being out after a fly ball. I don’t have the data on either of these, so I will ignore these. The Jays had scored 13 more runs than RBIs, so the first happens about once every 3.3 games)
I estimated the number of base runners (BR) by adding LOB, (RBI-HR) and GIDP. The base runners batted in (BR BI) is (RBI-HR).
Rod Barajas and Adam Lind have been cashing in the highest proportion of their base runners at 26.7% and 26.2%, respectively. Also over 20% are, in order, Lyle Overbay, Aaron Hill and Marco Scutaro. At the other extreme, among the regular starters Vernon Wells has batted in only 16 of his 126 base runners and Alex Rios only 16 of his 115 base rummers. Scott Rolen’s 12 of 78 is very low as well. The best OBP on the team belongs to Jose Bautista, but he has only batted-in 5 of 41 base runners.
What about erasing runners?
Not that he is a regular, but the worst on the team is Raul Chavez, who has 2 RBI and 2 GIDP, so he’s erased as many as he’s driven in, but he's not on the team for his bat. The others that have erased more than 5% of their base runners are Millar, Scutaro, Bautista, Hill, Wells and Rios. Snider, Lind, and Overbay are under 5%, while Rolen and Barajas has no GIDP to date.
Net Impact
The Net Impact can be computed by taking the difference between the number or percentage of base runners that scored and the number erased. Barajas stays on top with 26.7% followed by Lind, at 22.4% and Overbay at 19.7%. Rios and Wells are both under 10%, which is not what we should expect from the 3 and 4 hitters.
Two Outs
I didn’t do much analysis on the 2-out situation, but a few observations:
(1) Vernon Wells has left 23 runners in scoring position (RISP) with 2 out but has only 9 2-out RBIs.
(2) Rod Barajas – tops in the analysis above – is next worst with 15 RISP and 4 RBI with 2 outs.
(3) At the other extreme, Lyle Overbay has 11 2-out RBI and has stranded only 8 RISP with 2 outs and is the only Jay with more 2-out RBI than RISP with 2 out.
(4) Adam Lind is the team leader with 2-out RBI at 17, but he has also left 22 RISP with 2-out.
What surprised me was that the team with the higher OBP won 37 of the Jays first 44 games, whereas the higher SLG predicted 41 of the 44 game winners. Runs Created had a record of 36-8, differing from OBP on the outcome of three games. I was interesting to note that on the misclassified Jays losses the average Team LOB was 9.8 (9.2 for RC) and the total of the individual LOB averaged 20.7 (19.5 for RC). Conversely, in the games predicted as losses that the Jays actually won the averages were 4 for TLOB and 8 for the individual LOB. For the season, the Jays are averaging 7.7 and 16.4 on these measures, respectively.
When a player comes to the plate with runners on base, there are three principal things that can happen: he can drive them in, leave them on base, or erase them with a ground ball double play. (There can also be a run driven in with no RBI and there can also be double plays resulting from a runner being out after a fly ball. I don’t have the data on either of these, so I will ignore these. The Jays had scored 13 more runs than RBIs, so the first happens about once every 3.3 games)
I estimated the number of base runners (BR) by adding LOB, (RBI-HR) and GIDP. The base runners batted in (BR BI) is (RBI-HR).
Rod Barajas and Adam Lind have been cashing in the highest proportion of their base runners at 26.7% and 26.2%, respectively. Also over 20% are, in order, Lyle Overbay, Aaron Hill and Marco Scutaro. At the other extreme, among the regular starters Vernon Wells has batted in only 16 of his 126 base runners and Alex Rios only 16 of his 115 base rummers. Scott Rolen’s 12 of 78 is very low as well. The best OBP on the team belongs to Jose Bautista, but he has only batted-in 5 of 41 base runners.
What about erasing runners?
Not that he is a regular, but the worst on the team is Raul Chavez, who has 2 RBI and 2 GIDP, so he’s erased as many as he’s driven in, but he's not on the team for his bat. The others that have erased more than 5% of their base runners are Millar, Scutaro, Bautista, Hill, Wells and Rios. Snider, Lind, and Overbay are under 5%, while Rolen and Barajas has no GIDP to date.
Net Impact
The Net Impact can be computed by taking the difference between the number or percentage of base runners that scored and the number erased. Barajas stays on top with 26.7% followed by Lind, at 22.4% and Overbay at 19.7%. Rios and Wells are both under 10%, which is not what we should expect from the 3 and 4 hitters.
Two Outs
I didn’t do much analysis on the 2-out situation, but a few observations:
(1) Vernon Wells has left 23 runners in scoring position (RISP) with 2 out but has only 9 2-out RBIs.
(2) Rod Barajas – tops in the analysis above – is next worst with 15 RISP and 4 RBI with 2 outs.
(3) At the other extreme, Lyle Overbay has 11 2-out RBI and has stranded only 8 RISP with 2 outs and is the only Jay with more 2-out RBI than RISP with 2 out.
(4) Adam Lind is the team leader with 2-out RBI at 17, but he has also left 22 RISP with 2-out.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Pitchers Making Their MLB Debuts in 2009
In MLB this year, there have been 70 games started by 17 different pitchers making their MLB debut in 2009. While it is still early, only 5 have posted ERAs below 4.50: Baltimore’s Koji Uehara, Detroit’s Rick Porcello, and the Jays’ Ricky Romero, Robert Ray and Brett Cecil. Uehara is a 34-year-old “rookie” with 10 years on the staff of the Yomiuri Giants in Japan.
Excluding Porcello and the three Jays, the 2009 debut group has been averaging 5.38 innings per start with a WHIP of 1.59, ERA of 5.96, an average Game Score (GSc) of 42.2 and only 1/3 of their starts being Quality Starts, based on a Game Score of 50 or more as the definition of QS. Porcello has been averaging 5 2/3 innings with a WHIP of 1.24, ERA of 3.86, an average GSc of 51.9 and 5 of his 7 starts being QS. The three Jays have averaged 6 2/3 innings or more with WHIPs at 1.20 or lower, an average GSc of 58.8 and 6 of their 9 starts being quality starts. The three Jays have been throwing 64.4% of their pitches for strikes, while Porcello has thrown 60.2% and the rest 62.4%.
The three Jays have been lasting longer and pitching better. Sure it is early, and we may see the clock strike midnight and things return to being pumpkins and mice. I think Cito Gaston and JP Ricciardi will be quite happy if even two of these three settle in to posting sub-4 ERAs and averaging over 6.5 innings per outing.
Excluding Porcello and the three Jays, the 2009 debut group has been averaging 5.38 innings per start with a WHIP of 1.59, ERA of 5.96, an average Game Score (GSc) of 42.2 and only 1/3 of their starts being Quality Starts, based on a Game Score of 50 or more as the definition of QS. Porcello has been averaging 5 2/3 innings with a WHIP of 1.24, ERA of 3.86, an average GSc of 51.9 and 5 of his 7 starts being QS. The three Jays have averaged 6 2/3 innings or more with WHIPs at 1.20 or lower, an average GSc of 58.8 and 6 of their 9 starts being quality starts. The three Jays have been throwing 64.4% of their pitches for strikes, while Porcello has thrown 60.2% and the rest 62.4%.
The three Jays have been lasting longer and pitching better. Sure it is early, and we may see the clock strike midnight and things return to being pumpkins and mice. I think Cito Gaston and JP Ricciardi will be quite happy if even two of these three settle in to posting sub-4 ERAs and averaging over 6.5 innings per outing.
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