In MLB this year, there have been 70 games started by 17 different pitchers making their MLB debut in 2009. While it is still early, only 5 have posted ERAs below 4.50: Baltimore’s Koji Uehara, Detroit’s Rick Porcello, and the Jays’ Ricky Romero, Robert Ray and Brett Cecil. Uehara is a 34-year-old “rookie” with 10 years on the staff of the Yomiuri Giants in Japan.
Excluding Porcello and the three Jays, the 2009 debut group has been averaging 5.38 innings per start with a WHIP of 1.59, ERA of 5.96, an average Game Score (GSc) of 42.2 and only 1/3 of their starts being Quality Starts, based on a Game Score of 50 or more as the definition of QS. Porcello has been averaging 5 2/3 innings with a WHIP of 1.24, ERA of 3.86, an average GSc of 51.9 and 5 of his 7 starts being QS. The three Jays have averaged 6 2/3 innings or more with WHIPs at 1.20 or lower, an average GSc of 58.8 and 6 of their 9 starts being quality starts. The three Jays have been throwing 64.4% of their pitches for strikes, while Porcello has thrown 60.2% and the rest 62.4%.
The three Jays have been lasting longer and pitching better. Sure it is early, and we may see the clock strike midnight and things return to being pumpkins and mice. I think Cito Gaston and JP Ricciardi will be quite happy if even two of these three settle in to posting sub-4 ERAs and averaging over 6.5 innings per outing.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Monday, May 18, 2009
162 Game Projections, after 40
This is not something I take seriously; projecting a full season based on a partial season is something that is fun, however.
The Jays have 6 players on pace for 20 home runs: Hill (45), Lind (28) and Overbay, Well, Rios and Scutaro, all on pace for 20.
Doubles: Lind is on pace for 57 doubles, Barajas 45, Scuraro, Wells and Rolen each on pace for 41 and Rios (36) and Overbay (32) lagging a bit at 36 and 32, respectively. I expect both Overbay and Rios to pick up the pace a bit. The first base platoon of Overbay and Millar is on pace for 52 doubles and 24 HR.
RBI: 31% of the Jays RBIs are being produced by Lind (35) and Hill (33), which project to 142 and 134, respectively. No other Jay is on pace for 100, the closest being Barajas, on pace for 89.
By the way, the Jays high-water mark last year was 12 games above 0.500, which they reached after game 144 on September 9, an 8-2 vistory against Chicago. This year, they also got there after an 8-2 win over Chicago, but they did it in 104 fewer games. Their 0.650 winning pace projects to a 105-57 record. Cue up the Arrowsmith music! (Dream On)
The Jays have 6 players on pace for 20 home runs: Hill (45), Lind (28) and Overbay, Well, Rios and Scutaro, all on pace for 20.
Doubles: Lind is on pace for 57 doubles, Barajas 45, Scuraro, Wells and Rolen each on pace for 41 and Rios (36) and Overbay (32) lagging a bit at 36 and 32, respectively. I expect both Overbay and Rios to pick up the pace a bit. The first base platoon of Overbay and Millar is on pace for 52 doubles and 24 HR.
RBI: 31% of the Jays RBIs are being produced by Lind (35) and Hill (33), which project to 142 and 134, respectively. No other Jay is on pace for 100, the closest being Barajas, on pace for 89.
By the way, the Jays high-water mark last year was 12 games above 0.500, which they reached after game 144 on September 9, an 8-2 vistory against Chicago. This year, they also got there after an 8-2 win over Chicago, but they did it in 104 fewer games. Their 0.650 winning pace projects to a 105-57 record. Cue up the Arrowsmith music! (Dream On)
My Analysis After 40 games
Defense - Overall
The Jays continue to have the best defense in the AL, having the highest Defensive Efficiency at 0.7276 (up slightly from 0.719 after 20 games), slightly ahead of Texas at 0.7255, with quite a drop to third (Detroit) and fourth (Seattle), both under 0.71. The league average is 0.701. This means that if there were no strikeouts and only balls in play, the league average requires 38.5 plate appearances to get through a game compared to the Jays 37.1 plate appearances. In effect, the combination of the Jays’ propensity to induce ground balls, combined with their strong defense, saves them nearly 1.5 opposition plate appearances per game, compared to the league average.
Defense - Fielding
The Jays are at or near the top in almost every fielding category. They are second (after Minnesota at 0.991) in fielding percentage at 0.987 and second to Oakland in chances per game. They have slipped to fourth in DPs. Also, they are slightly above the league average in caught stealing having caught about 26% of those attempting to steal.
Defense - Pitching
In the past 20 games, the Jays have remained about constant at 4.30 runs per game while all the other leaders have fallen back. Only KC remains ahead of the Jays at 4.08 overall, but have allowed an average of 4.55 over the past 20 games. The league average has lowered a bit over the Jays’ past 20 games from 5.10 to 5.01, which is still up about 1/3 of a run per game from last year's 4.68. The only teams with ERAs below 4.00 are KC (3.59) and the Jays at 3.90, with the league average of 4.67. The Jays have climbed to first in WHIP at 1.25, ahead of KC at 1.32.
In the second 20 games, the Jays have had 12 quality starts, bringing their total to 21 for the season. The bullpen has been effective 15 of the 18 times they have been called upon, with effective meaning they've only allowed half an earned run per inning pitched.
On my preferred metric of pitching effectiveness, batters faced per out (BF/O), Roy Halladay had one weak start, when he gave up 4 runs to Baltimore, but is effective 90% of the time this season. Richmond had his two blow-ups, but in the first, he settled down and was effective overall by the time he completed the game. However, given his last two starts and the abundance of good, healthy arms waiting to get back to the Jays’ rotation, he is probably on a very short leash. Since coming up, Robert Ray and Brett Cecil have very good identical WHIPs of 1.10 and BF/O of 1.33.
I’ve started to track Bill James’ Game Score (GSc) statistic for starters. Over 50 is a quality start and over 70 is a great start. In the past 12 days, we’ve witnessed the best five performances by Jays’ starters this year: Halladay’s starts against the Angels (GSc=70) and the Yankees (78), Tallet’s and Cecil’s starts in Oakland (both Game Scores of 74) and Ray’s start yesterday against the White Sox (GSc=76). Among active starters, Halliday leads with an average GSc of 63.6, followed by Cecil and Ray with 61 and 59 respectively. Without his one blow-up, Tallet would be averaging 60.6, with these five starts all being quality starts on the GSc metric. As I posted on Mike Wilner’s blog, I’d rather have a guy that gives quality starts 4 out of five times and blows up once than a guy that has the same average performance consistently.
Offense:
On the Runs Created per plate appearance (RC/pa) metric, the Jays continue to do very well, but there has been some regression towards the mean. The team leader is still Aaron Hill at 0.209 (down from 0.225 after 20 games), followed by Lind at 0.201 (up from 0.191). Rolen has climbed to 0.165 from 0.154, while Scutaro has slipped very slightly to 0.153 from 0.157. Rios has climbed to 0.123 from 0.101, and his improvement has been quite steady in the past 20 games. Snider has gone into a serious offensive tailspin, falling to 0.105 from 0.182, and one wonders how long Cito and JP will continue to send him out. In 8 of the 14 games in which he played in the past 20, he’s contributed nothing offensively in 8 of those games. However, he has produced some highlight-reel defensive plays.
Except for Barajas, who has increased his RC/pa slightly to 0.148, the others have fallen off: Bautista to 0.140 from 0.177; Overbay to 0.147 from 0.166; Wells to 0.124 from 0.146; and Millar to 0.124 from 0.191. The team is averaging 0.148 with only Snider below the threshold of 0.120.
I now have data on pitches faced by each batter. What prompted me to get this data was the plate discipline shown by Adam Lind. It seemed to me that he had quite a number of high pitch-count at bats. (In fact, Lind has three at 10 or more.) Batting order positions 5 through 7 are tough on opposing pitchers, with Lind, Rolen and Overbay, averaging 4.44, 3.92 and 3.90 pitches per at bat, respectively. The platoon partners of Bautista and Millar also work the counts well at 4.09 and 3.76. Scutaro, at lead off and leading the majors in walks, also sees a lot of pitches and 3.84/pa. At the other extreme is Vernon Wells with only 3.24 pitches per at bat, which could be expected given that he has a reputation for swinging on the first pitch.
Outlook:
After 20 games, I wrote, “After a 14-6 start, the Jays have the best record in the AL. They have been hobbled at pitching, and the next 20-30 games could be quite a test.” Well, they’ve gone 12-8 in that stretch with pitching help that not anticipated. Purcey and Burres were sent down to Vegas and Burres is no longer on the 40 man roster, while Brett Cecil and Robert Ray have come up and pitched superbly. Tallet has pitched effectively as a starter in 5 of 6 starts. Richmond’s was Rookie of the Month for April, but that seems to have cursed him somewhat in his past two starts. With Janssen healthy and ready to be called up, Richmond should be on the bubble. I liked what I saw in his starts, except the last, but one must consider that he faced a Yankee lineup full of lefties, which have always hit well off him. Hopefully, he bounces back.
This brings me to a somewhat radical suggestion I made on Mike Wilner’s blog: keeping 6 starters with one LHP and one RHP swinging between the rotation and long relief, depending on the team their facing. For example, against the Yankees, I would want to start all lefties – possibly with the exception of Halladay – particularly with the wind-tunnel to right at the New Yankee Stadium. One drawback is that this might not be the wisest thing to do with young arms.
The bullpen has continued to perform very well with an ERA of 3.54 in the past 20 games and 3.49 overall. Ryan is back from the DL and pitched well in one, non-pressure situation. Scott Downs is the closer for now, something Ryan has publicly said he accepts. Of the remaining starters, only Camp and League have ERAs over 4.00, but neither is over 4.50.
After 20 games I said that I didn’t expect the offense “…to continue to average over 6 runs per game, although I think this squad will average over 5.5.” In the past 20, they have produced and average of 5.35, a bit below where I anticipated they would be. More concerning is that in 7 of those games, they produced 3 runs or less, accounting for 6 of their 8 losses.
After 20 games I posted, “Over the next 21 … I realistically see them going 13-8 or 12-9…” and they have gone 12-8, so they will be either 13-8 or 12-9 for that stretch after the White Sox leave town. It was great to see them return from a short West Coast swing with a winning (3-2) record, something that has been rare in the past few seasons.
The next 19 games include the last game against the White Sox and then a nine game road trip through Boston, Atlanta and Baltimore, followed by nine home games against Boston, the Angels and the Royals. Game 60 is scheduled to be the first of a road series in Texas. I see the Jays continuing to play 0.600 ball over this stretch winning 7 of their 10 home games and splitting on the road.
Season Projection:
This team has been remarkably consistent. There has not been any 10 game stretch where they have played below 0.500 or above 0.700.
Now that the Jays are 26-14, a 0.580 pace – their record last season under Cito – the rest of the way projects to a 97-65 record. Even if they slip back to 0.560 the rest of the way, they’ll finish with a 0.580 (94-68) overall.
Boston has slipped to 3 games behind, but I do see them staying with the Jays all season. The Yankees have started to pick up the pace lately, but neither the Yankees nor the Rays have picked up ground on the Jays since April 26, the date of game 20 for the Jays.
The Jays continue to have the best defense in the AL, having the highest Defensive Efficiency at 0.7276 (up slightly from 0.719 after 20 games), slightly ahead of Texas at 0.7255, with quite a drop to third (Detroit) and fourth (Seattle), both under 0.71. The league average is 0.701. This means that if there were no strikeouts and only balls in play, the league average requires 38.5 plate appearances to get through a game compared to the Jays 37.1 plate appearances. In effect, the combination of the Jays’ propensity to induce ground balls, combined with their strong defense, saves them nearly 1.5 opposition plate appearances per game, compared to the league average.
Defense - Fielding
The Jays are at or near the top in almost every fielding category. They are second (after Minnesota at 0.991) in fielding percentage at 0.987 and second to Oakland in chances per game. They have slipped to fourth in DPs. Also, they are slightly above the league average in caught stealing having caught about 26% of those attempting to steal.
Defense - Pitching
In the past 20 games, the Jays have remained about constant at 4.30 runs per game while all the other leaders have fallen back. Only KC remains ahead of the Jays at 4.08 overall, but have allowed an average of 4.55 over the past 20 games. The league average has lowered a bit over the Jays’ past 20 games from 5.10 to 5.01, which is still up about 1/3 of a run per game from last year's 4.68. The only teams with ERAs below 4.00 are KC (3.59) and the Jays at 3.90, with the league average of 4.67. The Jays have climbed to first in WHIP at 1.25, ahead of KC at 1.32.
In the second 20 games, the Jays have had 12 quality starts, bringing their total to 21 for the season. The bullpen has been effective 15 of the 18 times they have been called upon, with effective meaning they've only allowed half an earned run per inning pitched.
On my preferred metric of pitching effectiveness, batters faced per out (BF/O), Roy Halladay had one weak start, when he gave up 4 runs to Baltimore, but is effective 90% of the time this season. Richmond had his two blow-ups, but in the first, he settled down and was effective overall by the time he completed the game. However, given his last two starts and the abundance of good, healthy arms waiting to get back to the Jays’ rotation, he is probably on a very short leash. Since coming up, Robert Ray and Brett Cecil have very good identical WHIPs of 1.10 and BF/O of 1.33.
I’ve started to track Bill James’ Game Score (GSc) statistic for starters. Over 50 is a quality start and over 70 is a great start. In the past 12 days, we’ve witnessed the best five performances by Jays’ starters this year: Halladay’s starts against the Angels (GSc=70) and the Yankees (78), Tallet’s and Cecil’s starts in Oakland (both Game Scores of 74) and Ray’s start yesterday against the White Sox (GSc=76). Among active starters, Halliday leads with an average GSc of 63.6, followed by Cecil and Ray with 61 and 59 respectively. Without his one blow-up, Tallet would be averaging 60.6, with these five starts all being quality starts on the GSc metric. As I posted on Mike Wilner’s blog, I’d rather have a guy that gives quality starts 4 out of five times and blows up once than a guy that has the same average performance consistently.
Offense:
On the Runs Created per plate appearance (RC/pa) metric, the Jays continue to do very well, but there has been some regression towards the mean. The team leader is still Aaron Hill at 0.209 (down from 0.225 after 20 games), followed by Lind at 0.201 (up from 0.191). Rolen has climbed to 0.165 from 0.154, while Scutaro has slipped very slightly to 0.153 from 0.157. Rios has climbed to 0.123 from 0.101, and his improvement has been quite steady in the past 20 games. Snider has gone into a serious offensive tailspin, falling to 0.105 from 0.182, and one wonders how long Cito and JP will continue to send him out. In 8 of the 14 games in which he played in the past 20, he’s contributed nothing offensively in 8 of those games. However, he has produced some highlight-reel defensive plays.
Except for Barajas, who has increased his RC/pa slightly to 0.148, the others have fallen off: Bautista to 0.140 from 0.177; Overbay to 0.147 from 0.166; Wells to 0.124 from 0.146; and Millar to 0.124 from 0.191. The team is averaging 0.148 with only Snider below the threshold of 0.120.
I now have data on pitches faced by each batter. What prompted me to get this data was the plate discipline shown by Adam Lind. It seemed to me that he had quite a number of high pitch-count at bats. (In fact, Lind has three at 10 or more.) Batting order positions 5 through 7 are tough on opposing pitchers, with Lind, Rolen and Overbay, averaging 4.44, 3.92 and 3.90 pitches per at bat, respectively. The platoon partners of Bautista and Millar also work the counts well at 4.09 and 3.76. Scutaro, at lead off and leading the majors in walks, also sees a lot of pitches and 3.84/pa. At the other extreme is Vernon Wells with only 3.24 pitches per at bat, which could be expected given that he has a reputation for swinging on the first pitch.
Outlook:
After 20 games, I wrote, “After a 14-6 start, the Jays have the best record in the AL. They have been hobbled at pitching, and the next 20-30 games could be quite a test.” Well, they’ve gone 12-8 in that stretch with pitching help that not anticipated. Purcey and Burres were sent down to Vegas and Burres is no longer on the 40 man roster, while Brett Cecil and Robert Ray have come up and pitched superbly. Tallet has pitched effectively as a starter in 5 of 6 starts. Richmond’s was Rookie of the Month for April, but that seems to have cursed him somewhat in his past two starts. With Janssen healthy and ready to be called up, Richmond should be on the bubble. I liked what I saw in his starts, except the last, but one must consider that he faced a Yankee lineup full of lefties, which have always hit well off him. Hopefully, he bounces back.
This brings me to a somewhat radical suggestion I made on Mike Wilner’s blog: keeping 6 starters with one LHP and one RHP swinging between the rotation and long relief, depending on the team their facing. For example, against the Yankees, I would want to start all lefties – possibly with the exception of Halladay – particularly with the wind-tunnel to right at the New Yankee Stadium. One drawback is that this might not be the wisest thing to do with young arms.
The bullpen has continued to perform very well with an ERA of 3.54 in the past 20 games and 3.49 overall. Ryan is back from the DL and pitched well in one, non-pressure situation. Scott Downs is the closer for now, something Ryan has publicly said he accepts. Of the remaining starters, only Camp and League have ERAs over 4.00, but neither is over 4.50.
After 20 games I said that I didn’t expect the offense “…to continue to average over 6 runs per game, although I think this squad will average over 5.5.” In the past 20, they have produced and average of 5.35, a bit below where I anticipated they would be. More concerning is that in 7 of those games, they produced 3 runs or less, accounting for 6 of their 8 losses.
After 20 games I posted, “Over the next 21 … I realistically see them going 13-8 or 12-9…” and they have gone 12-8, so they will be either 13-8 or 12-9 for that stretch after the White Sox leave town. It was great to see them return from a short West Coast swing with a winning (3-2) record, something that has been rare in the past few seasons.
The next 19 games include the last game against the White Sox and then a nine game road trip through Boston, Atlanta and Baltimore, followed by nine home games against Boston, the Angels and the Royals. Game 60 is scheduled to be the first of a road series in Texas. I see the Jays continuing to play 0.600 ball over this stretch winning 7 of their 10 home games and splitting on the road.
Season Projection:
This team has been remarkably consistent. There has not been any 10 game stretch where they have played below 0.500 or above 0.700.
Now that the Jays are 26-14, a 0.580 pace – their record last season under Cito – the rest of the way projects to a 97-65 record. Even if they slip back to 0.560 the rest of the way, they’ll finish with a 0.580 (94-68) overall.
Boston has slipped to 3 games behind, but I do see them staying with the Jays all season. The Yankees have started to pick up the pace lately, but neither the Yankees nor the Rays have picked up ground on the Jays since April 26, the date of game 20 for the Jays.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
Not Baseball Stats, but Racial Attitudes
I was at the game Tuesday in which Halladay and the Jay defeated the Yankees in front of nearly 44,000 boisterous fans.
Before the game there was a presentation of a cheque to Child Find Ontario from a school (Holy Cross, St. Catharines, I think) that had raised some funds. Two students from the school sang the national anthems. The first, was a rather good rendition by a female student of the very difficult to sing U.S. Anthem. The Canadian anthem was sung by a Oriental student, who did not sing as well, yet it brought a tear to my eye. Here was an immigrant kid, whose family chose to be in Canada, singing "O Canada" in front of 44,000 people. How wonderful!
Unfortunately, the jerks in the 500 level where I was sitting, had to make fun of the kid and his accent. I wanted to say something, but decided not to since one never knows how much these idiots have had to drink. The irony is, that half these jerks behind me were non-white and probably kids of immigrants themselves.
Before the game there was a presentation of a cheque to Child Find Ontario from a school (Holy Cross, St. Catharines, I think) that had raised some funds. Two students from the school sang the national anthems. The first, was a rather good rendition by a female student of the very difficult to sing U.S. Anthem. The Canadian anthem was sung by a Oriental student, who did not sing as well, yet it brought a tear to my eye. Here was an immigrant kid, whose family chose to be in Canada, singing "O Canada" in front of 44,000 people. How wonderful!
Unfortunately, the jerks in the 500 level where I was sitting, had to make fun of the kid and his accent. I wanted to say something, but decided not to since one never knows how much these idiots have had to drink. The irony is, that half these jerks behind me were non-white and probably kids of immigrants themselves.
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Quality Starts
As of this morning, the Jays have the 8th best ERA (4.08) in MLB and the 4th best in the AL, a number inflated by a few starters such as Burres (no longer a Jay), Purcey (in LV trying to learn how to throw strikes) and Litsch (who ended up on the DL after just two starts). The starters have an overall ERA of 4.20, but without the three aforementioned, it is 3.18. We have been treated to a number of excellent pitching performances.
I like the Quality Start (QS) statistic, as it distils the starters’ performance down to a single number that determines whether they have kept their team in the game. 3 ER or less in 6 IP projects into an ERA of 4.50, which is close to both the mean and median numbers of runs scored per game. I make one modification to this statistic, in that I assess the QS at the end of the sixth inning, on the justification that it is a managerial decision to leave the starter in longer and if the starter gives up runs after that, he should not lose his QS. In my database I track both, and distinguish my definition from the widely-accepted definition as MQS (Modified Quality Start). In the Jays’ season to date, there has only been once that a pitcher has an MQS but not a QS: Opening night, when Halladay was allowed to continue with a big lead and gave up 4 runs in the 7th.
However, there are other measures I track as well.
• ERA in the appearance – which ignores the longevity of the start.
• Bill James’ Game Score
• WHIP+, which simply adds HBP to the on-base calculation
• BF/O, Batters faced per out which I’ve discussed before
• OPS against (OPSa)
• E(ERA), discussed below
• PQS, discussed below.
E(ERA) is Expected ERA, which is computed by determining the batting team’s Runs Created (RC) against the pitcher, which is Runs Allowed (RA). The RA are used instead of the actual ER to compute E(ERA).
PQS was developed by Ron Shandler and stands for Pure Quality Start, which assigns a 0 to 5 score based on five measures, provided the pitcher has lasted at least five innings:
• 1 if IP ≥ 6, measuring stamina.
• 1 if Hits ≤ IP
• 1 if (IP – SO) ≥ 2
• 1 if SO/BB ≥ 2
• 1 if HR ≤ 2
I have my reservations about this measure, as it is biased against pitch-to-contact pitchers that don’t strike out many, but I am going to reserve judgment until I have done more analysis.
So what have been the dominant pitching performances so far by the Jays’ starters this year?
Based on E(ERA), the top five and only sub-2.0 E(ERA) starts are
• Halladay vs NYY, May 12 – E(ERA) = 1.00
• Tallet at Oakland, May 9 – E(ERA) = 1.07
• Romero vs Oakland, April 19 – E(ERA) = 1.38
• Richmond at Minnesota, April 15 – E(ERA) = 1.84
• Cecil at Oakland, May 10 = E(ERA) = 1.85
Of course, a criticism of the E(ERA), and almost any metric, is that pitchers will get top ratings against weak-hitting teams. The OPSa metric also ranks these as the top five pitching performances.
Based on BF/O, the top five starts are:
• Halladay vs NYY, May 12 – BF/O = 1.11
• Tallet at Oakland, May 9 – BF/O = 1.14
• Romero vs Oakland, April 19 – BF/O = 1.24
• Cecil at Oakland, May 10 = BF/O = 1.25
• Romero at Minnesota, April 14 – BF/O = 1.25
There have been 10 starts with a WHIP+ of 1.00 or less. The four less than 1.00 are:
• Halladay vs NYY, May 12 – WHIP+ = 0.56
• Tallet at Oakland, May 9 – WHIP+ = 0.57
• Romero vs Oakland, April 19 – WHIP+ = 0.86
• Tallet vs Oakland, April 18 – WHIP+ = 0.94
There are 5 starts with a Games Score (GSc) of 70 or more:
• Halladay vs NYY, May 12 – GSc = 78
• Cecil at Oakland, May 10 – GSc = 74
• Tallet at Oakland, May 9 – GSc = 74
• Romero vs Oakland, April 19 – GSc = 73
• Richmond at LAA, May 6 – GSc = 70
There are 7 Pure Quality Starts with a score of 5:
• Cecil at Oakland, May 10
• Tallet at Oakland, May 9
• Romero vs Oakland, April 19
• Richmond at LAA, May 6
• Halladay at Cleveland, April 11
• Richmond vs Baltimore, May 3
• Cecil vs Cleveland, May 5
Halladay’s start last night was the best by E(ERA), BF/O, WHIP+ and GSc, yet because he only struck out 5 batters, to the chagrin of 43,737 fans hoping for a free pizza slice, his PQS is only 4. My skepticism about this measure has not waned.
This has been a great week for Blue Jays fans of great pitching!
As of this morning, the Jays have the 8th best ERA (4.08) in MLB and the 4th best in the AL, a number inflated by a few starters such as Burres (no longer a Jay), Purcey (in LV trying to learn how to throw strikes) and Litsch (who ended up on the DL after just two starts). The starters have an overall ERA of 4.20, but without the three aforementioned, it is 3.18. We have been treated to a number of excellent pitching performances.
I like the Quality Start (QS) statistic, as it distils the starters’ performance down to a single number that determines whether they have kept their team in the game. 3 ER or less in 6 IP projects into an ERA of 4.50, which is close to both the mean and median numbers of runs scored per game. I make one modification to this statistic, in that I assess the QS at the end of the sixth inning, on the justification that it is a managerial decision to leave the starter in longer and if the starter gives up runs after that, he should not lose his QS. In my database I track both, and distinguish my definition from the widely-accepted definition as MQS (Modified Quality Start). In the Jays’ season to date, there has only been once that a pitcher has an MQS but not a QS: Opening night, when Halladay was allowed to continue with a big lead and gave up 4 runs in the 7th.
However, there are other measures I track as well.
• ERA in the appearance – which ignores the longevity of the start.
• Bill James’ Game Score
• WHIP+, which simply adds HBP to the on-base calculation
• BF/O, Batters faced per out which I’ve discussed before
• OPS against (OPSa)
• E(ERA), discussed below
• PQS, discussed below.
E(ERA) is Expected ERA, which is computed by determining the batting team’s Runs Created (RC) against the pitcher, which is Runs Allowed (RA). The RA are used instead of the actual ER to compute E(ERA).
PQS was developed by Ron Shandler and stands for Pure Quality Start, which assigns a 0 to 5 score based on five measures, provided the pitcher has lasted at least five innings:
• 1 if IP ≥ 6, measuring stamina.
• 1 if Hits ≤ IP
• 1 if (IP – SO) ≥ 2
• 1 if SO/BB ≥ 2
• 1 if HR ≤ 2
I have my reservations about this measure, as it is biased against pitch-to-contact pitchers that don’t strike out many, but I am going to reserve judgment until I have done more analysis.
So what have been the dominant pitching performances so far by the Jays’ starters this year?
Based on E(ERA), the top five and only sub-2.0 E(ERA) starts are
• Halladay vs NYY, May 12 – E(ERA) = 1.00
• Tallet at Oakland, May 9 – E(ERA) = 1.07
• Romero vs Oakland, April 19 – E(ERA) = 1.38
• Richmond at Minnesota, April 15 – E(ERA) = 1.84
• Cecil at Oakland, May 10 = E(ERA) = 1.85
Of course, a criticism of the E(ERA), and almost any metric, is that pitchers will get top ratings against weak-hitting teams. The OPSa metric also ranks these as the top five pitching performances.
Based on BF/O, the top five starts are:
• Halladay vs NYY, May 12 – BF/O = 1.11
• Tallet at Oakland, May 9 – BF/O = 1.14
• Romero vs Oakland, April 19 – BF/O = 1.24
• Cecil at Oakland, May 10 = BF/O = 1.25
• Romero at Minnesota, April 14 – BF/O = 1.25
There have been 10 starts with a WHIP+ of 1.00 or less. The four less than 1.00 are:
• Halladay vs NYY, May 12 – WHIP+ = 0.56
• Tallet at Oakland, May 9 – WHIP+ = 0.57
• Romero vs Oakland, April 19 – WHIP+ = 0.86
• Tallet vs Oakland, April 18 – WHIP+ = 0.94
There are 5 starts with a Games Score (GSc) of 70 or more:
• Halladay vs NYY, May 12 – GSc = 78
• Cecil at Oakland, May 10 – GSc = 74
• Tallet at Oakland, May 9 – GSc = 74
• Romero vs Oakland, April 19 – GSc = 73
• Richmond at LAA, May 6 – GSc = 70
There are 7 Pure Quality Starts with a score of 5:
• Cecil at Oakland, May 10
• Tallet at Oakland, May 9
• Romero vs Oakland, April 19
• Richmond at LAA, May 6
• Halladay at Cleveland, April 11
• Richmond vs Baltimore, May 3
• Cecil vs Cleveland, May 5
Halladay’s start last night was the best by E(ERA), BF/O, WHIP+ and GSc, yet because he only struck out 5 batters, to the chagrin of 43,737 fans hoping for a free pizza slice, his PQS is only 4. My skepticism about this measure has not waned.
This has been a great week for Blue Jays fans of great pitching!
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Rookie Pitchers - as Mike Hogan would say, "WOW!"
This evening it was announced that Scott Richmond was named Rookie of the Month in the AL. The MLB Press release says Ricky Romero received votes as well. Add to that, Robert Ray coming one out shy of a quality start in his first ML game and today's debut by Brett Cecil (6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 SO, 0 BB) and that is some amazing rookie pitching.
In 10 starts by rookies - 5 by Richmond, 3 by Romero and one each by Ray and Cecil - they have combined for:
Pitching is the most precious asset in baseball and JP deserves a lot of credit for having this much rookie talent.
In 10 starts by rookies - 5 by Richmond, 3 by Romero and one each by Ray and Cecil - they have combined for:
- a 6-0 record
- 63 innings pitched
- 8 Quality Starts
- 47 strike-outs vs 20 walks
- 2.43 ERA
- 1.175 WHIP
- 1.365 BF/O
- and opposition hitters are batting 0.216/0.256/0.364
Pitching is the most precious asset in baseball and JP deserves a lot of credit for having this much rookie talent.
Cito Vs Gibby & Mike WIlner's Blog
Out of respect for Mike Wilner, I'm going to try to refrain from posting on his blog about the Cito vs Gibbons issue. Mike is clearly growing weary from the numerous posts on the issue and I think that he is bothered by the distraction it has become there.
In a reply to a comment on my analysis posted here I compare the stats of Wells, Rios and Scutaro - the only three Jays with 450+ PA and not battling arm/should issues like Rolen and Overbay - and show that these three were underperforming under Gibby/Denbo and actually overperforming their career numbers under Gaston/Tenace. That not just mean reversion, since they have all swung past their "mean" (career numbers) and performed better than their career averages.
In a reply to a comment on my analysis posted here I compare the stats of Wells, Rios and Scutaro - the only three Jays with 450+ PA and not battling arm/should issues like Rolen and Overbay - and show that these three were underperforming under Gibby/Denbo and actually overperforming their career numbers under Gaston/Tenace. That not just mean reversion, since they have all swung past their "mean" (career numbers) and performed better than their career averages.
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